San Francisco 49ers star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk requested a trade this week after negotiations with the team on a new contract stalled. The Washington Commanders, quarterbacked by Aiyuk’s close friend and former college teammate Jayden Daniels, are often speculated as a potential landing spot.
But does it really make sense for either party? That’s a loaded question.
Wait, why are we even talking about Aiyuk?
Money and production. The 2020 first-round pick out of Arizona State led the 49ers in targets the past two seasons and is coming off a career year with 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdown catches (including an acrobatic grab to spark a comeback in the NFC championship game). His 17.9 yards per reception were second in the NFL, and his seven 100-yard games were the most in a season by a 49er since Jerry Rice in 1995.
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In short: Aiyuk is exceptional.
But he has been the subject of conversations for months because of his tenuous contract talks.
According to NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, Aiyuk wants “to at least be in line with” star wideouts Davante Adams of the Las Vegas Raiders and Jaylen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins, whose contracts average roughly $28 million per season. Garafolo reported the 49ers last made a contract offer to Aiyuk in May.
Aiyuk has pulled the Commanders into the conversation seemingly as a way to pressure the 49ers.
After his team lost in the Super Bowl, he hinted at dissatisfaction with a post on Instagram: “Don’t forget what got you there.” In the months since, he has expressed frustration in interviews and social media posts, several of which have included Daniels.
Aiyuk told Daniels over a FaceTime conversation made public that the 49ers “don’t want me back.” This month, he shared a screenshot of Daniels’s offseason practice film with the Commanders. Aiyuk also brought Daniels with him to his interview on the Pivot podcast.
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Asked on the podcast what jersey he expects to be wearing this season, Aiyuk said: “If I were to take a guess, probably a Niners uniform. Probably a Niners uniform, but if not a Niners uniform, probably a Washington Commander uniform. If not a Washington Commanders uniform, then probably a Steelers uniform.”
Where do things stand with Aiyuk and the 49ers?
The trade request hardly precludes the sides from reaching an agreement soon. The 49ers have a history of closing deals with top players before they begin the final season on their contracts.
And the 49ers have the leverage here. Aiyuk is entering the fifth year of his rookie contract, worth about $14.1 million. If he doesn’t report to training camp next week, he could be fined $40,000 per day, and if he misses a preseason game, he could be fined one week’s base salary.
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The team can forgive those fines, as it did last season when star defensive end Nick Bosa, coming off an all-pro season, ended his holdout to sign a long-term deal. The financials play in San Francisco’s favor.
What are the odds the 49ers trade Aiyuk?
Low. The 49ers are trying to win a Super Bowl, and according to reports, they have made it clear to teams they don’t plan on moving Aiyuk. If they were going to trade Aiyuk, they probably would have done so before the draft, when they could have used the picks to help build the roster.
Aiyuk’s situation seems to be following a familiar trend. The 49ers have let negotiations play out with stars for years, including tight end George Kittle (signed Aug. 13, 2020), linebacker Fred Warner (July 21, 2021), wide receiver Deebo Samuel (July 31, 2022) and Bosa (Sept. 6).
If the 49ers consider moving him, would the Commanders make a play — and at what cost?
Seems unlikely. One person with knowledge of the Commanders’ thinking said General Manager Adam Peters won’t discount any opportunity to improve the team and will do his due diligence on every player. Peters knows Aiyuk well from his time in San Francisco. But Peters has also said publicly he won’t mortgage the Commanders’ future for one player and wants to build through the draft. His roster moves this offseason have aligned with that philosophy.
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Giving up draft assets to acquire a wide receiver and then paying him a sizable contract when the team already has $24.1 million in cap space tied to Terry McLaurin for this season and another $25 million for next season would run counter to the Commanders’ agenda. A scenario that may make more sense is a player-for-player trade. But such deals are rare, and would the Commanders really give up, say, McLaurin, a respected captain? Probably not.
How would Aiyuk help the Commanders?
The Commanders have three wide receivers who could be considered locks to make the roster (as much as any player can be a lock with a new coaching staff): McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and rookie Luke McCaffrey. The remaining jobs are up for grabs, and Washington could use another elite pass catcher and playmaker for Daniels. Aiyuk already has a connection with Daniels on the field.
What are the potential drawbacks of trading for Aiyuk?
Cost. Even if the 49ers were open to moving Aiyuk, they wouldn’t give away a player of his caliber on the cheap. For any team to trade for him, it’s with the assumption it will pay the player long term after acquiring him. Picks and cap space are commodities for every team but especially one in a rebuilding phase such as the Commanders.
What seems to be the most logical outcome?
Aiyuk plays for the 49ers — for this season at the very least. Given San Francisco’s history of reaching deals with players before the start of their final season under contract, the same could happen with Aiyuk. If not, the 49ers could use the franchise tag on him in 2025.
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